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Global warming has been one of the most emotionally charged issues in recent times, debated almost as fervently and sometimes as irrationally, as religious topics. I did a stint in atmospheric chemistry as a post-doc but my scientific involvement with the subject was “limited” to fundamental research involving chemistry rather than climate change per se. However, recently I embarked upon doing some research on the topic and was struck by the large variety of opinions and uncertainties on virtually everything on the subject. I approached the subject with a view to gain an understanding on the “facts” or the “science”. At the end of it, I have come to the conclusion that the warm times we live in may actually be a blessing. Before you think I am completely crazy, let’s start at the beginning.
1) What is Global Warming?
Global warming refers to the rise in the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. The warming is mainly attributed to human activities (or fancily called anthropogenic forcing). Concerns on the topic were raised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990 wherein it was stated that it is certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface. The amount of warming is about 0.6 degree C on average.
2) What is the significant cause of global warming?
The recent warming observed since the 80′s is attributed to a very significant increase in greenhouse gases such as carbondioxide and methane. According to thermodynamics, the total energy flux from the sun reaching the earth should equal the energy flux radiated out by earth. However, in the presense of GHGs, some of the energy radiated by earth, is absorbed by these molecules and reemitted in all directions. So some of it comes back to the Earth thereby warming it. It logically follows that if the concentration of GHGs increase, warming should occur. However, where the picture gets fuzzy is when you ask the question “How much?”. There are so many parameters that affect Earth’s climate that it is mind boggling to extract the contribution of the Greenhouse effect in isolation.
3) Why is global warming bad?
Well, if you have you seen “An Inconvenient Truth” you might have shivered in horror like I did. The movie makes such an impact that it did not occur to me to doubt or question anything at that point. Coming back to the question, shrinking ice and rising sea levels are the foreseen direct impact of warming. Shrinking polar ice caps could impact polar bear population and rising sea levels could cause some damage. Now no one can actually predict how much the sea level can rise – that is a number that has huge error bars. But these are the basic consequences of warming. You can make it to be as bad as you want depending on your imagination and inaccuracies of computer models humans use to predict things they do not understand well.
4) What is the evidence for global warming?
Things begin to get interesting when you look for answers to this question. There are several things that are shown as evidence for global warming. The direct evidence should be rising temperatures of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. One of the most well known climate scientists who has done a lot of work with historical temperature records is James Hansen from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Hansen has published graphs of temperature recorded at various meteorological centers across the world as a function of time. He used a quantity known as the Global Surface Mean Temperature as an indicator of global warming. See the graph below:

Ref: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2007/20071210_GISTEMP.pdf
Hansen has published a few versions of this graph since 1987 and his work is widely accepted as the basis for global warming today. On the surface, the graph does indicate that the globe is warming. But is it? Let’s probe a bit deeper. Before we blindly accept anything we see, it is good scientific practice to question.
What does average global temperature mean and how is it measured?
Here’s my understanding on this (Ref: Hansen et al, http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Hansen_etal.pdf). There is a global temperature record since 1850. Temperatures were recorded at several meteorological stations on land; satellite and ship measurements are available for sea temperatures. The daily maximum and minimum temperature recorded at a particular station are averaged to give the daily mean. The daily means are averaged over a month long period. The monthly average is then subtracted from a reference from the same set of stations – the reference is the average temperature from 1961 to 1990. The reference is the 0 on the y axis in the graph above. It is important to note that the temperatures recorded at different stations need to be compared apples to apples: for ex., were the temperatures at each station measured at the same time every day? It turns out that there are several things that bias the recorded temperature – read the paper for the gory details. The point is, such graphs are a far cry from the raw data coming out of the thermometers. Lots of assumptions are made, lengthy code is written and numbers are fed to a computer to generate the graph shown above. Maybe this is good but what does the quantity called Global Mean Temperature actually mean?
Let’s consider this scenario. Imagine that Earth has a well defined climate distribution and can be neatly divided into four climactic zones. These climactic zones are represented by Helsinki ( Finland), Sydney (Australia), Mumbai (India) and Columbus (Ohio, USA). Now assume that mean temperatures at these four cities were as follows in the month of January 2011 (the temperatures below are close to reality):
———————————————————————————–
City Average Temp (deg F)
———————————————————————————–
Helsinki 35.5
Sydney 72
Mumbai 75
Columbus 30
———————————————————————————–
So the global average temperature in January 2012 was 53.125 deg F.
Now, in January 2012, the mean temperatures at these four stations were:
———————————————————————————–
City Average Temp (deg F)
———————————————————————————–
Helsinki 35.5
Sydney 72.5
Mumbai 75
Columbus 30
———————————————————————————–
The mean temperature of the Earth is now 53.235 deg F. Does this mean that the Earth was warmer in Jan 2012 than in Jan 2011? I don’t think so. Basically one data point (Sydney) is skewing the picture. These are dangerous statistical play fields that although seem to be accepted, make me uncomfortable.
5) But let’s move on, what about Earth’s climate before 1850?
Now, it gets even more interesting. It turns out that we have a natural thermometer in age old ice cores. Gas molecules get trapped in ice cores and isotopes of common molecules found in the atmosphere can be dated to reconstruct the temperature back to several thousands of years in the past. (Ref: http://www.gps.caltech.edu/classes/ese148a/Petit_etal_1999.pdf). The concentration of these isotope molecules is dependent on the global temperature and thus the temperature can be reconstructed to several hundreds of thousands of years back in time. This temperature reconstruction is based upon the physical properties of these molecules so no adjusting of data is required. (There are a couple of assumptions that are made though – see the paper for details).
How does the concentration of isotope molecules depend on global temperature?
Let’s consider the water molecule. There are two isotopes of water, normal water with O(16) and water with heavier oxygen, O(18). As we all know from school chemistry, the natural abundance of O(16) is much higher than O(18) so it follows that the natural abundance of normal water in the oceans is much higher than water with O(18). Now glaciers and ice sheets are formed when water from the oceans evaporate and condense – the source of the ice is water from the oceans. Since normal water is lighter than water with O(18), it evaporates at a lower temperature. So if global temperatures a “low”, the concentration of O(18) water molecules in ice cores should be lower than if temperatures were higher. To be more precise, a decrease of one part per million of O(18) in ice reflects a 1.5°C drop in air temperature at the time it originally evaporated from the oceans. For more details on the science behind dating ice cores, see http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/paleoclimate/index.html
Below is a graph of the reconstruction of temperature as a function of time at Vostok in Antarctica.

Ref: http://www.gps.caltech.edu/classes/ese148a/Petit_etal_1999.pdf
Now, this is interesting. The blue curve shows the variation of temperature as a function of time. The present is at 0 on the x axis and the graph goes out to 400,000 years into the past. This graph shows that the Earth’s climate is a pendulum swinging between temperate (or interglacials where life thrives) to glacial ice ages (when life comes to end). The reason for this oscillating nature of Earth’s climate is attributed to the peculiarities of Earth’s orbit around the sun. At certain positions, the earth receives a greater amount of solar energy and the periodicity of the ice core temperature data correlate closely with the quasi periodic variations in orbital eccentricity, obliquity and precession of Earth’s orbit. So this phenomenon is termed solar forcing. The ice core data does show correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases and temperature. But it appears that the CO2 peaks come after the temperature peaks – in other words increased CO2 concentrations are the effect and not the cause of high temperatures
[References:
- Indermühle et al. (GRL, vol. 27, p. 735, 2000), who find that CO2 lags behind the temperature by 1200±700 years, using Antarctic ice-cores between 60 and 20 kyr before present (see figure).
- Fischer et al. (Science, vol 283, p. 1712, 1999) reported a time lag 600±400 yr during early de-glacial changes in the last 3 glacial–interglacial transitions.
- Siegenthaler et al. (Science, vol. 310, p. 1313, 2005) find a best lag of 1900 years in the Antarctic data.
- Monnin et al. (Science vol 291, 112, 2001) find that the start of the CO2 increase in the beginning of the last interglacial lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. ]
The paper by Petit et al notes that the current interglacial (or Holocene) is a unique feature of Earth’s climate in the past 420,000 years because of it’s length and stability. The instrumental temperature record that we saw earlier exists for about 100 years – it is a mere blip in the big picture. Is the current warming just a part of the “normal” oscillating nature of Earth’s climate? If it is true that current greenhouse gas emissions are at a record high, will that amplify the warming?
Conclusion
After becoming a little educated on global warming, I have a healthy skepticism on whether it is caused by anthropogenic forcing or not. The high concentration of greenhouse gases might amplify the natural warming of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans but it is difficult to prove unambiguously because of the extreme complexity of Earth’s climate. Well, even if it does amplify the effect, going by the past record, the destruction of an ice age (that going by the past we are heading for in a few thousand years) is far more significant.
My skepticism does not indicate that I am OK with indiscriminate consumption of precious fossil fuels that end up in greenhouse gas emissions. That is a different aspect that should not mix with the science as then the science gets tainted with ideology. Let the debate continue by all means – with more science and less name calling, politics and ideology. Let us not forget that we can afford the luxury of a debate on this topic precisely because we live in warm times. For an excellent description of life as it blossomed and faded between ice ages, I strongly recommend chapter 27, Ice Time, of Bill Bryson’s “A Short History of Nearly Everything“.
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